America Has Not Decided In Which Direction to Go
Henry J. Stern is the founder and president of New York Civic.
The 2012 national election had been described by both parties as a clash of competing ideologies; the politicians said it would be an Armageddon whose outcome would determine America's course for decades.
Like so many political predictions, that one turned out to be wrong. The 50% - 48% split between candidates Obama and Romney did not show a national consensus. Although the results taken individually were somewhat better for the Democrats, the Republicans kept control of the House. There was no mandate to either expand the safety net or to weaken it. Polls showed a majority of the population favored a lesser role for the government in economic affairs, while at the same time they voted for Obama, who held the opposite view.
This election turned out to be a victory for moderation. Candidates who ran primaries on the far right moved towards the center in the general election if for no other reason than that is where the votes are. However, there was not enough time to pirouette twice and a few Republicans were caught with their snakeskins still molting.
In New York State's 27 house districts (down from 45 in 1950), no Member of Congress was defeated primarily on ideological grounds. There was no significant swing in either direction. Turnovers resulted from local sentiment and the individual strengths and weaknesses of candidates, not from a switch in public opinion from one philosophy to another. As is often the case, the same people who in polls found fault with their legislators nonetheless generally re-elected them.
The national parties spent billions of dollars in political races and ended up in practically the same place they began. However that does not mean that the money was wasted because if the parties had not spent it they might have incurred substantial losses. The fact that the races were so costly, largely because of the high cost of media time in New York State, does not prove that the expenditures were unnecessary.
State Senate Democrats were helped by an infusion of millions of dollars by the teachers union in several races, coupled with President Obama's strong showing at the top of the ticket
The first issue that will arise after the election is whether to call the current New York State Legislature back into session before January 1st. They want substantial pay increases for themselves, which would make them the highest paid state legislators in the country. The issue will likely be what reforms they will begrudgingly enact in order to get the Governor to sweeten the pot. The choice of leaders will be fascinating; remember what happened the last time Senate Democrats had a majority, in 2009.
Another factor for Governor Cuomo, a presumed candidate for President in 2016, is that he does not want to be seen as opposing a left-leaning state legislature so he will have a compelling reason to participate in the choice of leadership, although of course he will express disinterest in the matter. If he does not weigh in and the legislature chooses someone who is ideologically at odds with him, it will add to his difficulty in governing. If a fractious legislature makes the Governor appear to be out of step with his own party, that would not be helpful to his ambition to be the Leader of the Free World.
Again there is a potential conflict between the delegates to the 2016 Democratic convention, many of whom will be proud socialists, and the overall electorate, whose viewpoints are much more moderate. This is analogous to the tea party situation: militant activists influencing the party beyond their numbers and making it more difficult for them to win a broad-based national election.