ON LATINO POWER IN NEW YORK

The Rise of Latino Political Power?

The Rangel-Espaillat Primary Race

The NiLP Network on Latino Issues (August 1, 2012)

Note: For video reviews of the forum by Lucia Gomez-Jimenez of La Fuente and John Garcia of LatinoJustice PRLDEF, visit The Perez Notes by clicking here .

In the first major assessment of the June 26, 2912 Democratic Congressional Primary that centered on Adriano Espaillat's challenge to incumbent Congressman Charlie Rangel in the newly-drawn 13^th Congressional District covering Manhattan and the Bronx, two major players in that race provided very different takes ontheis campaign. La Fuente, A Tri-State Worker & Community Fund sponsored this citywide forum that featured a discussion with Moises Perez, who served as Campaign Manager for Rangel for Congress, and Shammeik Barat, who served as the Campaign Manager for the Espaillat Campaign. The session was presided over by Lucia Gomez-Jimenez, Executive Director of La uente, and the discussion moderated by Angelo Falcón, President of the National Institute for Latino Policy (NiLP).

Even before it started, this forum was marked by controversy as two of the original panelists withdrew at the last minute. NYC Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez, who was a major player in the Espaillat campaign, and Naila Rosario-Caiceda, who served as Field Director for the Clyde Williams campaign and is a co-founder of Afrocolombia NY, were, we were later informed, discouraged by the Office of State Senator Espaillat from participating in this discussion for reasons that were not entirely clear. Rosario-Caiceda is the Campaign Manager of Espaillat ally Gabriela Rosa, a candidate for the Assembly seat being left open by Espaillat challenger Guillermo Linares, whose daughter Mayra is also a candidate for.

The panel and audience discussion covered a wide range of issues involving this primary race. These ranged from its potential impact on the political relation between Dominican, Puerto Rican and Black communities, to campaign strategies, to its implications to the reelection for this seat in the future two years. The discussants, both Dominican, spoke about their roles in the two campaigns and how it related to their identification of the best interest of their community. The role of the redistricting process and debate about the unsuccessful proposal to create a Dominican Congressional district was also discussed, as well as the prospects for election reform and the need for major changes in the operations of the NYC Board of Elections.

From the start of the conversation, it became clear that Perez was very critical of the role Espaillat played in this process, pointing out that Espaillat had squandered his seniority when he gave up his long held Assembly seat to run for State Senate and now for Congress. He argued that Espaillat was not being strategic in terms of building Dominican political power and built his campaign on a narrow nationalism that severed relationships with other communities. Barat argued that it was important for the community to press for the opportunity to have the first Dominican to run for Congress and in the process move the community to a new political stage at the national level of U.S. politics for the first time. She felt that by doing so Espaillat did ntt sever any ties to other communities beyond the normal tug an pull of local politics, but did bring national attention to the Dominican community.

According to the latest unofficial results released by the NYC Board of Elections, Rangel beat Espaillat by a margin of 44.3 percent to 41.8 percent. The three Black challengers to Rangel together attracted 13.7 percent of the primary vote. Perez pointed out that if you included the votes of his Black challengers, Rangel could have won with as much as 58.0 percent, which would have been a landslide victory for him. Others countered that these Black challenges, particularly Clyde Williams, had attracted many anti-Rangel voters who would have gone to Espaillat.

It was also interesting that Espaillat won the vote in The Bronx section of the district, by a margin of 47.0 percent to Rangel's 42.7 percent. The Bronx section only represented 12 percent of the total district vote, but pointed to, in part, Espaillat supporter State Senator Gustavo Rivera's ability deliver in an area where most of the Puerto Rican power brokers were supporting Rangel.

In the map of the 13^th Congressional District, the primary vote results for the top three candidates are presented for the Assembly Districts that make up the Manhattan section of the district (CR for Charlie Rangel; AE for Adriano Espaillat; and CW for Clyde Williams). The Bronx section is a combination of small pieces of a number of Assembly Districts in that county and their breakdown is not provided.

As was expected, Rangel won 59.5 percent in the largely Black 70^th Assembly district, represented by Keith Wright, who recently became co-chair of the New York State Democratic Party. Rangel, however, also won and with a larger percentage, 63.8 percent, in the largely Puerto Rican and other Latino 68^th AD represented by Assemblyman Robert J. Rodriguez. In the largely White 69^th AD, represented by Assemblyman Daniel O'Donnell, Rangel won with 52.6 percent of the vote (this is the district where Clyde Williams received his largest share of the vote, 16.1 percent of the total, followed by 14.8 percent of the 70 AD and 12.3 percent of the 68 AD).

Espaillat won the largely Dominican 72 AD by 78.6 percent of the vote, the district represented by his now rival for his State Senate seat, Guillermo Linares. He also won with 46.6 percent of the vote in the 71 AD, which has a large Dominican and Black population, and which is represented by Herman D. Farrell, who has held this seat for 26 years.

In the Bronx, as already mentioned, Espaillat won with 47.0 percent of the vote to Rangel's 42,7 percent. This section of the 13^th Congressional District is made up of sections of 5 Bronx Assembly Districts. The largest is the 78 AD, which is represented by José Rivera. It also includes pieces of the 77 AD (Vanessa Gibson), 80 AD (Naomi Rivera), 81 AD (Jeffrey Dinowitz) and the 86 AD (Nelson Castro). This section is largely Latino, mostly Dominican with a large Puerto Rican population, as well as a significant Guyanese community. 

Perez pointed out that he felt that Espaillat's campaign failed to galvanize Dominican voters at the level that many expected, despite what he termed a "perfect storm" of events. That included the recent elections in the Dominican Republic, Espaillat's support for Congress by Lionel Fernandez, the current President of the Dominican Republic, and the long and highly publicized campaign for a Dominican Congressional district during the redistricting process in the state.

In a preliminary analysis of the results, Falcón found that for information he had on turnout in those Assembly Districts that were fully in the 13^th Congress District, the 70^th, 71s and 72^nd ADs, Dominican voter turnout was relatively higher. In the most Dominican AD, the 72^nd, the turnout among Democratic voters was 18.4 percent, compared to 15.2 and 14.9 percent, respectively, for the 70^th and 71^st Assembly Districts. Barat discussed the enthusiasm that the Espaillat candidacy for Congress engendered in the Dominican community as a sign for the continued increasing voter participation of this community in the future.

José Bello, a consultant to the Espaillat campaign, raised the question of what influence the super PAC Campaign for Primary Accountability, which stated it would be sending $300,000 in ads in support for Espaillat, had on the race. Perez explained that he did not understand why Espaillat and his supporters didn't understand the negative political significance of this Tea Party-influenced group putting so many resources to unseat Rangel and accepting their support. Following the forum, Bello reported that he checked the campaign contributions reports and it turned out that the Campaign for Primary Accountability Super PAC had, in fact, only would up spending $10,000 on the Espaillat campaign instead of the $300,000 they claimed. In the end, with incumbent Rangel winning the primary, this super PAC did not play a significant role.

Falcón attempted to inject some levity into the proceedings by suggesting that someone start a contest to name the shape of the 13^th Congressional District, offering a couple of suggestions of his own to get the ball rolling. He also reported that among the write-ins in this primary, the winners were Councilmember Charles Barron and Congressman Eliot Engel with 2 votes each. Congresswoman Nydia Velazquez and her failed challenger, George "Bum Rush the Vote" Martinez, tied in this district, with 1 vote each. Also receiving a vote were such notables as Mickey Mouse, Stewie from TV's Family Guy and even Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer.

Looking at the future of this Congressional seat, both Barat and Perez thought it would be wide open. Barat explained that while this primary certainly raised Espaillat's profile as a serious contender for this seat in the future, it didn't guarantee that he was now heir to it. Perez predicted that there would be many candidates for this post in two years, making it hard to predict what will happen.

Gomez-Jimenez closed the session by pointing out the need for more open forums like this on Latino issues and for the type of independent analysis we had just heard. She also urged those in attendance to participate in the forthcoming public hearings of the NYC Council Districting Commission, which is redistricting the 51 City Council districts this year. She handed out the public hearing scheduled that was made available to the forum by NYC Districting Commission stafer Carlos Cairño ( click here  for the schedule).

The tables and map presented in this report were created by the National Institute for Latino Policy (NiLP), who would like to thank Valerie Vazquez of the NYC Board of Elections and Miguel Maldonado for their invaluable assistance. For an analysis that contextualizes some of the discussion about Latino politics above, see Falcón's recent report, " A Boricua Game of Thrones ."