These poll numbers were released earlier today by Rasmussen Reports -- "an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information."
Perry 44% Obama 41%; President Leads Other GOP Hopefuls
Wednesday, September 1, 2011
For the first time this year, Texas Governor Rick Perry leads President Obama in a national Election 2012 survey. Other Republican candidates trail the president by single digits.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Perry picking up 44% of the vote while the president earns support from 41%. Given the margin of sampling error (+/- 3 percentage points) and the fact that the election is more than a year away, the race between the two men is effectively a toss-up. Just over a week ago, the president held a three-point advantage over Perry. (To see question wording, click here .)
Perry leads by nine among men but trails by five among women. Among voters under 30, the president leads while Perry has the edge among those over 30. The president leads Perry by 16 percentage points among union members while Perry leads among those who do not belong to a union.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney currently trails the president by four percentage points, 43% to 39%. That's a slight improvement for the Republican compared to a week ago. Earlier in the year, Romney held a one-point edge when matched against the president. Prior to today's release, that was the only time a named Republican has held any kind of lead over President Obama. A Generic Republican currently leads the president 48% to 40%.
If Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is the GOP candidate, the president leads 46% to 38%. Unlike Perry and Romney, Bachmann's numbers are a bit weaker now than they were a week ago.
Finally, if the Republicans were to nominate businessman Herman Cain, President Obama would attract 42% of the vote to Cain's 35%.
The match-up surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters were conducted August 23-30, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for the surveys is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology .
Against all four Republicans, the president leads among voters who earn less than $40,000 a year and those who earn more than $100,000 a year. The Republicans do better among those in the middle.
One of the best measures of a president's prospects for re-election is his Job Approval rating . Recently, the president's approval has held steady in the low-to-mid 40s, a sign of potential vulnerability. However, it is very early in the election cycle and there is plenty of time for the president's numbers to improve (or possibly to decline). In either case, as election day approaches, the president's share of the vote is likely to be very close to his Job Approval rating.
Perry leads the race for the GOP nomination by double digits. However, it's worth noting that the 2008 nominee, John McCain, never led in national polling until the end of December in 2007. The frontrunner for the nomination often polls better than other candidates in match-ups against an incumbent president.
Data released earlier shows the p resident leading Congressman Ron Paul by a single point and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin by double digits .
Perry leads Obama by 70 percentage points among Republicans while Romney leads by 63. The president leads all three among unaffiliated voters. However, the president's support among unaffiliateds ranges from 41% to 44% and a quarter of unaffiliateds remain either undecided or interested in a third party option.
Match-ups for each candidate were conducted on separate nights as part of the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.