These poll numbers were released earlier today by Rasmussen Reports -- "an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information."
Election 2012: New Jersey Presidential Election
In New Jersey, It's Obama 49%, Christie 44%
Friday, May 27, 2011
Democratic-leaning New Jersey, both home state Governor Chris Christie and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are within single digits of President Obama in hypothetical 2012 election match-ups.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Jersey Voters finds Obama capturing 49% of the vote, while Christie earns 44% support. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here .)
Nationally, the president holds a 43% to 35% lead over the first-term Republican governor among Likely U.S. Voters.
Christie insists he is not seeking the Republican presidential nomination in 2012, but one of those who is, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, runs a similar race with the president in New Jersey. Obama leads Romney 49% to 43%. Given this matchup, five percent (5%) like another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
Among all likely voters nationwide, Obama bests Romney 45% to 40% . In every matchup tested so far this year, the president's national support has stayed between 42% and 49%.
All early polling for the 2012 election should be viewed with caution given the potential for change over the next year-and-a-half. "If the economy improves dramatically over the next year-and-a-half, the president will be virtually impossible to beat," notes Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. "However, if there is a double-dip recession, it will be hard for the Republicans to lose. If the economy shows little substantive change, the race could be very competitive."
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in New Jersey was conducted on May 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology .
Christie has the support of 80% of the state's Republicans, while 88% of Garden State Democrats favor Obama. The governor holds a sizable 58% to 34% lead among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.
Romney earns slightly more support (84%) among New Jersey Republicans but has a much slimmer 46% to 39% lead among unaffiliateds. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats prefer the president, given this match-up.
Romney and Christie are nearly dead even for the GOP nomination among Likely Republican Primary Voters if Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Donald Trump are not in the race. Huckabee and Trump have both announced they are not running. Palin remains non-committal but is beginning an East Coast speaking tour this weekend.
While the real Republican presidential primary race is still months away, Christie has strong support when likely primary voters are asked who they would definitely vote for.