These poll numbers were released earlier today by Rasmussen Reports -- "an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information."
Paul consistently led Conway prior to winning the Republican primary, but had never earned more than 50% support. Conway has been stuck in the 30s since the first of the year. Last month , Paul posted a 47% to 38% lead over the Democrat.
Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of maverick GOP Congressman Ron Paul, defeated Trey Grayson, Kentucky's secretary of state, by a 59% to 35% margin in Tuesday's Republican Primary. Conway, the state's attorney general, on the other hand, just barely edged Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo 44% to 43% on Tuesday to capture the Democratic Senate nomination.
While Paul is capitalizing for now on Tea Party unhappiness in Kentucky over national policies, he's also a political newcomer who's running against a candidate who has previously run both for Congress and for statewide office. Rookie candidates often make unforced errors and it is difficult to project how well the GOP candidate will handle the campaign trail between now and November.
Since winning the primary, Paul has gained ground among Republican voters and is now supported by 82% of the GOP faithful. That figure is up from 69% earlier. Paul also earns 73% support from unaffiliated voters at this time. That, too, reflects a huge bounce following the primary victory (see full demographic crosstabs .)
Conway, on the other hand, attracts support from just 59% of Democrats. Most conservative Democrats currently prefer Paul over the Democratic nominee. Conservative Democrats represent just under 15% of all Kentucky voters.
This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted on May 19, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology .
Following his primary win, Paul encouraged Democrats to bring President Obama to the state to campaign for Conway. Only 36% of Kentucky voters currently approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 63% disapprove. This includes 21% who Strongly Approve of how the president is doing and 51% who Strongly Disapprove.
Eighty-nine percent (89%) of those who Strongly Disapprove of Obama's job performance support Paul, while a similar number (88%) of those who Strongly Approve of how the president is doing support Conway.
Opposition to the national health care law is higher in Kentucky than it is nationally. In Kentucky, 65% favor repeal of that law and just 29% are opposed.
In the immediate aftermath of his victory as a political outsider, Paul is viewed Very Favorably by 33% of the state's voters and Very Unfavorably by 14%. Still, most do not have a strong opinion one way or the other and Democrats will attempt to define Paul's image in the coming weeks.
Conway is viewed Very Favorably by 15% of voters in the state and Very Unfavorably by 20%.
Sixty-three percent (63%) of Kentucky voters favor passage of an immigration law like Arizona's in their own state. Support for the chief provision of that law is even higher: 78% believe a police officer should be required to check the immigration status of anyone stopped for a traffic violation or violation of some other law if he suspects the person might be an illegal immigrant.
Those levels of support in Kentucky are higher than the national average .
Just 19% are at least somewhat confident that Congress knows what it is doing when it comes to the nation's economic problems. Seventy-nine percent (79%) don't share that confidence.
Seventy-two percent (72%) are not very or not at all confident that their representatives in Congress are representing their best interests.
Forty-six percent (46%) approve of Democratic Governor Steve Beshear's job performance, unchanged from last month, but 52% disapprove.
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