Dear Lucas,
Over the weekend, we received great news. We are polling ahead of likely Republican nominee Dennis Ross 35%-32% with the official Tea Party candidate Randy Wilkinson receiving a whopping 20%. This shows without a doubt we can win this race, but we need your help. We have a goal of raising $5,000 online by our next fundraising deadline, this Wednesday August 4th.
Can you contribute $50, $100, $250, or whatever you can afford to help us meet our goal of raising $5,000 online by this Wednesday's fundraising deadline?
With a 2-1 favorability rating and my history of winning tough elections, I am in a great position. Plus, the Tea Party candidate is pulling two-thirds of his votes from the Republican. Still, we need the resources to get our positive message out before our opponent attacks.
I've included a memo below further explaining the poll results. We've confirmed that this is one of the most competitive congressional races in the country, but only you can get us across the finish line. Contribute today!
Thanks,
Lori Edwards
July 31, 2010
Lori Edwards Leads Race for Florida's 12th District
Tea Party Candidate Wilkinson Has Potential to Play Deciding Role
To: Interested Parties
From: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll1 shows Lori Edwards bucking national political trends and leading Dennis Ross 35 to 32 percent, with official Tea Party candidate Randy Wilkinson receiving 20 percent of the vote2.
Edwards is well positioned to take advantage of the dynamics of this race. She is popular, receiving a nearly 2:1 positive-to-negative favorability ratio, including a solidly net positive favorability rating from Republican voters.
This race provides a clear example of the impact a Tea Party candidate can have this year. On top of the national Tea Party momentum, Wilkinson is a candidate with a particular ability to siphon votes away from the Republican candidate and hold them. He's a Republican County Commissioner with a 12-point name identification advantage over Ross, and his positive favorability rating is double that of Ross'.
Wilkinson pulls roughly twice as many votes from Ross as from Edwards, drawing 18 percent Republican voters and 36 percent of Republican-leaning Independents, an ideologically conservative bloc.
About The Survey
The sample for this survey was drawn randomly from a list of registered voters and stratified by the townships and precincts in Florida's 12th Congressional district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the expected contribution of these areas to the total vote in the 2010 general election. The sample reflects the demographic composition of the likely 2010 electorate in this district. Party registration in the survey is 42 percent Democratic and 44 percent Republican (party registration of all registered voters in the district is 42 percent Democratic and 35 percent Republican). The sample is 47 percent male and 53 percent female, 79 percent white/Caucasian, 9 percent African American, and 6 percent Latino/Hispanic. Fifty-three percent of voters in the survey self-identify as conservative, 27 percent as moderate, and 16 percent as liberal.
No information about any of the candidates had been provided previous to the vote being asked.
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1 This survey of 400 likely November 2010 voters was conducted July 26 - 28, 2010 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. The survey is subject to a margin of error of approximately +/- 4.9 percentage points.
2 "Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in November 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today and the candidates were Democrat Lori Edwards, Republican Dennis Ross and Tea Party candidate Randy Wilkinson, for whom would you vote: Democrat Lori Edwards, Republican Dennis Ross or Tea Party candidate Randy Wilkinson?"