Thousands of Manhattan Children To Be Without Public School Seats In Coming YearsAs many as 13,000 Manhattan children will be without seats in public schools by 2016 despite increased capital spending by the city, according to a report by Manhattan Borough President Scott M. Stringer. The report charges that the Department of Education's Capital Plan uses flawed methodology and is based upon ten-year enrollment forecasts that predict a decline in school-age population despite the addition of some 50,000 new housing units in the borough.
The report also notes that for the most recent year that actual enrollment figures are available (2007-08 school year), the Department of Education forecast a decline in Manhattan enrollment of 2,200 to 2,700 students, while the actual borough school population increased slightly in that year, thereby further calling into question DOE's forecasting assumptions.
Borough President Stringer said, "If the Department of Education is going to look to outside consultants to develop enrollment forecasts that differ from City Planning's predictions, then they better have strong reasons for their approach, and the accuracy of their predictions should be scrutinized. I'm concerned that over a decade that will see 50,000 new housing units built in Manhattan, the Department of Ed is planning for between 2700 and 5000 fewer primary and middle school students."
"What we see when we look at the numbers is that plans to build schools between now and 2016 will only create enough seats to handle new students coming as a result of Manhattan's residential building boom in past years," said Borough President Stringer. "There's no capacity being added for residential growth in coming years, even though DOE recognizes that there will be tens of thousands of new apartments here."
"Parents and teachers know that overcrowding is an obstacle that children shouldn't have to overcome. The current capital plan process does not respect individual community voice or input. This is not acceptable," said United Federation of Teachers President Michael Mulgrew.
The Office of the Manhattan Borough President developed its forecast of new primary and middle school students added to the rolls between 2007 and 2016 (mirroring the period of DOE's ten-year enrollment projections) by adopting DOE's own predictions of new housing starts in the borough and then applying the formula for predicting school-age population used by the New York City Department of City Planning.
The Department of Education develops its forecasts of student enrollment in partnership with two consultants: The Grier Partnership and Statistical Forecasting, LLC.
The discrepancies in the forecasting of Manhattan's pre-K to 8th-grade enrollment for the period 2007 to 2016 are large:
-5131 students The Grier Partnership
-2721 students Statistical Forecasting, LLC
+8139 students MBPO / City Planning model
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13,270 students Difference between Grier and MBPO
10,860 students Difference between Statistical Forecasting and MBPO
Borough President Stringer's proposals for protecting against erroneous DOE forecasts include: (a) requiring the Department of Education to provide in writing to the Public Advocate and five Borough Presidents explanations for why their enrollment forecasting differs from projections derived from the modeling employed by the Department of City Planning, whenever such discrepancies occur; (b) periodic audits conducted by the Public Advocate, working in conjunction with the Borough Presidents, of the methodology and assumptions employed by DOE and their conclusions about future levels of school enrollment; (c) enlisting the City Comptroller to develop a needs analysis estimating the number of new school seats needed five and ten years into the future; (d) directing DOE's School Construction Authority to make public any plans to focus on local school planning, and engage with the community about a neighborhood's public school needs; and (e) revising the "Blue Book" formula to account for the need to provide cluster space and reduce class size.
"Borough President Stringer's study confirms what many of us have been stating for years, that school overcrowding is a major problem looming over Manhattan's present and future," said Congressman Jerrold Nadler. "We are here today speaking in one voice, to state that the City must plan carefully and responsibly in order to prevent a tremendous squeeze on our local schools in the near future."
"This report shows that the City is still using the same flawed methodology to deny the very real need for more schools in Manhattan. Until New York City creates a formal mechanism for ensuring that school construction keeps pace with development we are not going to solve the problem of school overcrowding," said Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney.
"The Department of Education's capital planning process is broken," said New York City Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr., who like Stringer has analyzed school overcrowding. "As I found in my May 2008 report, Growing Pains, too many of our City's neighborhoods are dealing with overcrowded schools, particularly elementary schools, with no relief in sight. With the DOE, it always seems to be too little, too late."
Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum said, "I commend Borough President Stringer for his ongoing work to address overcrowding. Parents in every neighborhood should have the option to send their child to their zoned public school or pre-K. The Department of Education and School Construction Authority needs to take a hard look at the formula for calculating capacity and make reforms to the capital planning process to ensure that all districts have the seats they need."
"Insufficient student growth projections based on flawed methodology -- we've seen this story before, and this year the assignment is for SCA to do better. I commend Borough President Stringer for keeping the pressure on the Department of Education to adapt their capital plan to assure parents and students no longer have to worry about overcrowding in Lower Manhattan public schools" said State Senator Daniel Squadron.
"This report highlights two important issues for the East Side and all of New York City -- school overcrowding and the lack of long-term planning for neighborhood expansion. As new residential buildings are constructed and more families turn to public school for their children's education, we must continue to ensure that our schools can accommodate all neighborhood students, account for future population grow, and maintain an environment where intellectual curiosity can thrive," said Assembly Member Jonathan Bing.
"For years, City Planning and the Mayor have been working to help developers build housing for a population boom in Manhattan," said Assembly Member Richard N. Gottfried. "Didn't someone in City Hall tell the Department of Education they need a lot more classrooms and desks? City Planning and the Department of Education are both mayoral agencies. They should be paying attention to each other, and responding."
"Every parent of a child packed into an overcrowded New York City classroom knows that the City has failed to accurately predict the number of school age children today. The Borough President's report makes an insightful suggestion: that the City needs to learn basic arithmetic. When a new residential tower goes up, the number of children in that area increases. This is how the Upper East Side, which I represent, became one of the most overcrowded neighborhoods in New York. The Department of Education must use City Planning data in all future capital plans," said Assembly Member Micah Z. Kellner.
"As a public school parent, I know that there is no replacement for the time spent between a teacher and a student, and we cannot continue sacrificing it away. We must prioritize smaller class sizes and direct funding for the classroom. This is what I have been fighting for in the Council, and I will make it a priority as Public Advocate," said Bill de Blasio, candidate for Public Advocate.
"Each year, we face another new crisis in terms of school overcrowding," said Council Member Dan Garodnick. "Crisis management is no substitute for sound planning. We need new school seats, and we need school construction to keep pace with residential development."
NYC Council Member Alan J. Gerson said, "I applaud Borough President Stringer's initiative on this critical issue, and I call on the City Council to pass legislation that will link the creation of classroom seats to new residential development and accurate projections."
"The overcrowding crisis in Manhattan is unacceptable," Council Member Jessica Lappin said. "Since Borough President Stringer's first report, class sizes have grown and this year, for the first time ever, Manhattan children were put on waitlists for their neighborhood schools. This isn't fair and it isn't right. The DOE needs to open as many schools as it takes to prevent this from happening again next year."
Council Member John Liu said, "Borough President Stringer's analysis is right on the money. There is no good explanation as to why DOE forecasts have been different from City Planning's forecasts. This lapse occurred as a result of years of mayoral control with no accountability nor oversight. As Comptroller, I will vigorously audit the DOE's methodologies and analyses with regard to enrollment forecasts and other DOE functions, and put an end to the DOE's numbers games, which only serve to distract the DOE from making real progress."
"I applaud the efforts of Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer who has showed great leadership in authoring this study, 'School Daze.' With my background in public education in school district 6, I understand the problems that overcrowding causes and the need for every child to have access to a sound basic education." said Ydanis Rodriguez, Candidate for City Council District 10.
"As this analysis points out, the administration relies on enrollment projections that are deeply flawed in order to assess school capacity needs. Our classrooms are already overcrowded, and our children are facing a worsening crisis unless the city faces the truth - and builds more schools. In a recent survey, 86% of principals said that their class sizes were already too large to provide a quality education. Yet the city is supposed to grow by a million residents by 2030 - without any plans on how to deal with the increased number of schoolchildren this will entail," said Leonie Haimson, Executive Director of Class Size Matters.
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