These poll numbers were released earlier today by Rasmussen Reports -- "an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information."
Thursday, October 15, 2009
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey shows Republican challenger Chris Christie clinging to the lead in a fluid and volatile race that may come down to how many votes independent candidate Chris Daggett gets. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine has closed the gap to make the race competitive but still attracts very low levels of support.
The latest numbers show Christie getting 45% of the vote, Corzine with 41% and Daggett at nine percent (9%). Over the past week, support for Christie is down two points, support for Corzine is down three points, and support for Daggett is up three. The number of undecideds is up a couple of points to five percent (5%).
However, the race may be even closer than those numbers suggest. When voters are asked their initial choice, 38% name Christie, 38% Corzine, and 16% prefer Daggett. But 57% of Daggett's supporters say they could change their minds before election day. That dwarfs the number of swayable Corzine and Christie voters.
Among supporters of the governor, 27% say they could still change their minds while just 20% of Christie supporters say the same. A plurality of swayable Daggett supporters and undecided voters indicate they are likely to end up voting for Christie.
Last week, The (Newark) Star-Ledger, the state's largest newspaper, endorsed Daggett, leading some to speculate that there might be a surge in support for the independent. But just 32% of voters statewide are able to correctly identify Daggett as the candidate endorsed by the paper. Eighteen percent (18%) think Corzine got the nod, eight percent (8%) say Christie, and a plurality of 42% has no idea. Among voters who could still change their mind, just 28% know Daggett won the endorsement.
Overall, 55% of voters have a favorable opinion of the newspaper. Not surprisingly, most of the opinions are fairly soft since many voters are not familiar with it. Just 16% have a Very Favorable opinion of The Star-Ledger while 21% have a Very Unfavorable view.
Twenty-eight percent (28%) of voters now say they'd consider Daggett as their first or second choice. This includes six percent (6%) who prefer Christie but would consider casting a vote for Daggett and six percent (6%) who prefer Corzine but would consider casting their vote for the independent.
In New Jersey, Democratic candidates typically gain ground over the final months of the campaign. That may be happening again. Just three weeks ago , Corzine was behind by seven points. No Republican has won a statewide race in New Jersey since 1997. This year, Corzine is expected to heavily outspend Christie during the final weeks which could be a game-changing factor.
While Christie's voters are a bit more certain to actually show up and vote at this point, Democrats have traditionally displayed a stronger get-out-the-vote effort on Election Day. Among voters who are certain they will vote and certain of how they will vote, Christie has an eight-point edge, 49% to 41%. That's one reason President Obama and other leading Democrats will be visiting the state in hopes of driving up turnout among Democratic constituencies.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of New Jersey voters approve of the way Obama is performing his role as president. That figure includes 38% who Strongly Approve.
Third-party candidates typically lose support in the final weeks of a campaign. That's because some of their supporters eventually decide to vote for the lesser of two evils among the major party candidates.
Just over a decade ago, Jesse Ventura captured the governor's job in Minnesota as a third-party candidate when his support soared near the end of the campaign. However, Minnesota voting rules made his victory possible in a way New Jersey rules do not. Minnesota allows same day registration so people attracted to Ventura could register and vote on the same day. New Jersey's voter registration closes three weeks before the election.
The two major party candidates now have similar favorable ratings. For Corzine, the numbers are 43% favorable and 55% unfavorable. Christie's totals are 46% favorable and 51% unfavorable.
Feelings remain stronger about the governor: 36% have a Very Unfavorable view of him while just 24% say the same about Christie.
Christie's numbers are down dramatically from earlier in the year.
Daggett is now viewed favorably by 45% and unfavorably by just 27%. However, just 18% have strong feelings about him, one way or the other.
Christie is trusted more than either of the other candidates on taxes , cutting government spending or cracking down on government corruption. On all three topics, Christie is preferred by 38% to 40% of voters, Corzine by 25% to 30%, and Daggett by 15% to 17%.
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To view the original report, please use this link: Jersey's Got a Tight One!