400,000 NEW YORKERS WILL BE OUT OF WORK BY 2010

THOMPSON REPORT: 400,000 NEW YORKERS OUT OF WORK AND 9.5% UNEMPLOYMENT BEFORE END OF RECESSION

-One million residents in households whose incomes are severely diminished by unemployment/underemployment-

The number of unemployed New Yorkers will reach 400,000 by 2010 - the largest number in more than 15 years - and cause more than one million people in New York City to be directly affected by unemployment amid the lingering recession, according to a new report by New York City Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr.

Thompson's new Economic Notes - available at www.comptroller.nyc.gov - exposes in detail the effects of the current economic crisis on jobs and unemployment in New York City.

"The recession is exacting a devastating toll on New Yorkers." Thompson said. "Economic downturns come and go, but leave behind a trail of human suffering. The severity of the current recession raises fears that the city's job losses will match or exceed those of previous downturns."

The new report examines such factors as ethnic demographics, unemployment benefits, household incomes and food stamp recipients so New Yorkers can better understand the consequences of the downturn. Thompson's Top 10 troubling findings:

· The number of unemployed New Yorkers has more than doubled since February 2008 (169,700) to 361,100 in May 2009.

· Since August 2008, New York City has lost 108,000 payroll jobs.

· New York City unemployment rate is likely to reach 9.5% by early 2010.

· The unemployment surge in New York City primarily has affected men; more than 70% of the increase in the city's unemployed between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 are men.

· Overall unemployment rose by 72% between the first quarters of 2008 and 2009, but unemployment in the African-American community swelled by 167%.

· The unemployment rate among African-Americans during the first quarter of this year rose to 14.7% - four times faster than with other ethnic groups.

· During that same period, unemployment most affected those between the ages of 25 and 54, with that number jumping from 99,900 to 211,800 - a 112% increase.

· More than one in seven New Yorkers were unemployed or underemployed in the first quarter of 2009.

· About 9.5 percent of all city households had diminished incomes due to unemployment during the first quarter of this year - and that will rise to about 12 percent by mid-2010.

· New Yorkers are out of work for a longer period of time. In the first quarter of 2008, 43,500 New Yorkers were out of work for 27 weeks or longer. In the first quarter of 2009, 95,600 people were - a 119% increase.

Thompson's analysis found that due to high concentration of financial sector jobs in New York, and the disruption that has occurred in the finance industry to date, the number of jobs lost attributable to this industry could be as high as 140,000, including direct and indirect job losses in associated industries.

Nevertheless, the analysis noted that the City has, thus far, performed better than expected during this downturn, largely due to the fact that the credit crunch disproportionately affected industries (such as construction, manufacturing, transportation, warehousing and retail trade) that are not highly concentrated in the New York City.

The report measured the human toll of unemployment, noting that when looked at numerically, the average New York City worker lives in a household with 2.2 other people. As a result, Thompson estimated that more than one million New York City residents are living in households whose incomes are severely diminished by unemployment and underemployment.

An analysis of unemployment benefits found that New York State's current unemployment program offers lower benefits than adjoining states. For instance, current maximum benefits in New York are $405 per week compared to $547 in Pennsylvania, $560 in New Jersey, and $576 in Connecticut. In fact New York is lower than Kansas ($407) and issues less than half of what is received in Massachusetts ($900). The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act temporarily added $25 per week to all of those maximums.

Thompson noted that in 2006 and 2007, new claims for unemployment benefits averaged 7,000 per week. During the first half of 2008 they rose to 8,000 per week and hit 9,000 per week during the second half of last year. During the first half of 2009, they averaged 12,700 per week.

"There is no arguing that this recession has impacted hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers," Thompson said. "Our friends, family and neighbors are feeling the brunt of this downturn and it's those who struggle to get by that need the most assistance. As we see more and more of our family, friends, and neighbors avail themselves of unemployment benefits or food stamps to help weather this storm, we should remind ourselves that our City has seen worse times and will no doubt bounce back once more. By late 2010, we should see the tides begin to turn."

Economic Notes also provided an update on some indicators used to gauge the current fiscal health of the City. They include:

· During March, April and May 2009, the City's income tax withholding, a good indicator of worker incomes, was down 4.2 percent from the equivalent period of 2008,

· Real Gross City Product fell at an estimated 4.1 percent annual rate in 1Q09, after a 6.1 percent decline in 4Q08,

· General City sales tax collections declined 7.8 percent for the first five months of 2009, compared to the same period in 2008,

· The Manhattan office vacancy rate rose to 9.6 percent in 1Q09, the highest since 3Q05, and

· The number of Manhattan apartments sold fell 47.6 percent in 1Q09 over 1Q08.

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