LP Latino Datanote

Dominicans Now Outnumber Puerto Ricans in New York City?

By Angelo Falcón

According to the 2015 one year estimates of the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS), New York City's Dominican population may have surpassed the Puerto Rican population for the first time. But maybe not . . . yet.

The reason is that the ACS is based on a sample and its estimates are provided within a margin of error. This means that their estimate for city's Dominican population ranges from 693,417 to 747,541, while that for Puerto Ricans is from 673,746 to 716,760.

This could be interpreted in three ways: 1. The Dominican population is now the largest; 2. The Puerto Rican population is still the largest; or 3. The two are about the same size. While the historical trend would point to the Dominican population growing larger than the Puerto Rican soon, if it hasn't already, the more cent increased outmigration from Puerto Rico because of the massive debt crisis it faces could offset, unexpectedly, the projected declines in the Puerto Rican population in New York City.

"The strength of the American Community Survey (ACS) is in estimating characteristic distributions. If you are looking for population totals, we recommend the 2010 Census or Population Estimates Program."

This means that a definitive counting of these populations will, unfortunately, have to await the results of the 2020 Census. In the meantime, the population figures coming from sample surveys like the ACS and Current Population Survey will produce estimate ranges that will not quell speculation on the relative sizes of these two Latino communities until the start of the next decade.