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WHO'S TO BLAME FOR TRUMP

NiLP Guest Commentary

¡Oye. . . It's Not Our Fault!

The Latino Presidential Vote in Philadelphia

by Israel "Izzy" Colón

The NiLP Report

Las Quejas . . . I won't tell you my age but let's just say I've been around long enough to survive the atrocious Republican policies of the Nixon administration, the so-called Reagan revolution, and the administrations of the Bush family. In that time, I don't recall ever witnessing the type of confusing post-election disarray we are experiencing after the recent November 8th Presidential. Given a Trump presidency, I understand the panic and hysteria generated by the dangerous threats his victory and policies pose to the livelihood of Americans and to Latinos, people of color and those on the economic fringes of our society.

What I have difficulty digesting is the reaction by some Democrats, political pundits, and others as they try to explain to us (particularly those of us who voted for her) WHY Hillary Clinton and the Democrats lost. Unfortunately, it's become a virtual BLAME-GAME. Since November 8th, critics, major media outlets and party surrogates have been busy presenting their rationale(s) for her loss. Nadie se escape . . . They blame:

  • White women for not giving Clinton the anticipated edge the campaign counted on.

(She lost the women's vote 52% to 48%).

  • FBI Director Comey for suppressing the vote with his letters to Congress...
  • Bernie Sander supporters despite polls in September indicating 3 in 4 supporters had pledged their vote to Clinton.
  • The millennial coalition Obama created (that just didn't translate to Clinton.)
  • The White working class
  • African Americans for not turning out in the numbers they did for Obama.
  • A Low share of the Latino vote
  • The Media.
  • The DNC and the candidacy of Hillary Clinton
  • El Chupacabra (only kidding!)

The exhaustive list of complaints goes on ad infinitum. Somehow my gut tells me that her loss can be attributed to elements touching on all the above mentioned (a conversation for another day.) But for now, I am more concerned with correcting the misguided assumptions and conclusions about the Latino vote that are circulating the mainstream and social media.

A recent exit poll showing Clinton garnering 65% of the Latino vote to Trump' s29% is implicitly shaping a narrative about "poor" Latino performance that should be challenged and discredited. Latino Decisions recently did a decent job through their own comprehensive poll showing Clinton received 79% of the Latino vote compared to Trump's 18%. The results of the thid survey are more consistent with our local Latino experience in Philadelphia. Allow me to illustrate.

The Political Backdrop

To some, except for the city of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania has been characterized as the "Alabama of the North" (hope you get the get my drift). Politically, though, the state has a Democrat as Governor who must wage battles with both houses of a Republican-controlled legislature, although Pennsylvania Democrats have a 27% edge in voters over Republicans. Forty-eight percent (48%) of all registered voters are Democrats, 38% are Republican, and 13% represent other parties. For Democrats Pennsylvania, has been a pivotal state (not necessarily a battle-ground state as its often described) with a winner-take-all 20 electoral votes up for grabs. Democratic Presidential candidates have succeeded in winning the state since 1996. In effect, Hillary's loss in Pennsylvania is the first time a Democratic Presidential candidate loses Pennsylvania in 20 years!

Philadelphia (PA) is a city of 1.567 million, considered the bastion of the Democratic party. Democrats outnumber Republicans by a ratio of 7 to 1. The Philadelphia Latino community comprises 14% in a city where 45% are African American, 44% are White, and 7% are of Asian ancestry. As in other cities in the northeast, Latinos face serious challenges.

More than two-thirds of Latinos in Philadelphia are Puerto Ricans. While they've made much progress, they still face high unemployment rates and experience the highest rate of concentrated poverty of any racial/ethnic group in the city. Over the last three decades, we've witnessed a community that has been resilient, fighting discriminatory policies, social and economic injustices, while building grassroots coalitions and viable educational and community-based institutions.

Politically, the overwhelming majority of Latinos are registered Democrats, and the geographic concentration of a core sector of the community has enabled greater political representation. Currently, the community is represented by two state House representatives and one district councilperson. All three are Latino, and two of the three elected officials are women.

Results: Philadelphia Latino Voter

Performance in the 2016 Election

We can project how Latinos voted by focusing on political subdivisions (wards) with significant majority Latino residents. For purposes of this sample this analysis reviewed four (4) wards that combined had a majority Latino population of 67% of its residents. Additionally, these wards geographically cover the highest concentration of Puerto Ricans in the city.

The population includes close to 52,000 registered voters - 84% were Democrats, 5% were Republicans, and 8% were either registered unaffiliated independents or members of other political parties. Latinos are extremely loyal Democrats outnumbering Republicans by a ratio of over 10 to 1, which is significantly higher than that of registered voters citywide.

Surprisingly, the turnout rates for this sampling could signal a historic new precedent. In past presidential elections, voter performance in these wards has historically ranged between 40 and 48%. But this year, in these wards, about 32,000 voters out of a potential electorate of 52000 showed up at the polls. That's an astounding 62% turnout. This means Latino turnout closely mirrored the 65% city wide turnout. More revealing, Clinton captured an average of 92% of the Latino vote to Trump's 7%. This contrasts with Clinton's citywide performance where she garnered 82% of the vote to Trump's 15%.

It's too early to come to accurate and informed conclusions as to what drove a dramatic increase in Latino voter participation in this year's Presidential election. Was it fear of a Trump administration? Was it the mysticism of the Clinton dynasty? Did Latina women outperform beyond traditional expectations? Or is this sample of voter behavior an outlier defying traditional Latino voting patterns?

Don't know yet, but what is certain is that of all the possible reasons for the failure of the Hillary campaign and the DNC to recapture the White House, the Latino vote was not one of them. At least not in our Philadelphia community. The truth is, their failure is NOT OUR FAULT! Like they use to say when I was a child growing up in the Lower East Side Barrio of New York: "No me incluyan en su revolú -- Alla, Uds que son blancos, que se entiendan."

Israel "Izzy"Colon is a longtime activist in Philadelphia who has served as the city Director of Multicultural Affairs and was the chief of staff to the first Puerto Rican City Councilmen, Angel Ortiz. He is a member of the Board of Directors of the National Institute for Latino Policy (NiLP). He can be reached at colon.izzy@gmail.com.

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The NiLP Report on Latino Policy & Politics is an online information service provided by the National Institute for Latino Policy. For further information, visit www.latinopolicy. org. Send comments to editor@latinopolicy.org.
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