Race, Gender Biggest Differentiators in Views of Clinton, Trump

by Frank Newport

The demographic compositions of the two major political parties in America today are well-established, and naturally enough, it follows that the demographic profiles of those who have favorable opinions of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would follow along these same lines. They do.

But it is worth looking at these differences in detail. They help us understand the dramatically different ways in which the two presumptive major party nominees are viewed across segments of U.S. society today. And that in turn helps us understand just how differently this election context can appear from one group of Americans to the other.

I'm looking here at the favorability ratings of Clinton and Trump among a wide variety of population segments created by various combinations of race and ethnicity, gender, education, religion, region of residence, income and marital status -- based on May 1-24 interviews with more than 11,600 Americans. Overall, for this time period, Clinton had an average favorable rating of 40% and Trump, an average favorable rating of 33%, for a +7 Clinton advantage.

The differences in views of Clinton and Trump across segments, as noted, are huge. The single population segment (of those tested) with the biggest difference is non-Hispanic blacks, among whom 69% have a favorable view of Clinton and only 11% have a favorable view of Trump. At the other end of the spectrum, 25% of white men have a favorable view of Clinton and 49% a favorable view of Trump. That's a 44-percentage-point swing in opinions of Clinton, and a 38-point swing in opinions of Trump. Although it exaggerates the differences, we can say that the swing in the gap in favorable ratings between the two extreme groups is 82 points (+58 Clinton among blacks and +24 Trump among white men).

Here is the basic table, listed in rank order of the Clinton-Trump favorable gap:

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump by Demographic Group

% with favorable opinion

	Hillary Clinton	Donald Trump	Clinton minus Trump
			(pct. pts.)
Non-Hispanic black	69%	11%	58
Nonwhite female	65%	9%	56
Nonwhite non-college grad	61%	13%	48
Nonwhite college grad	62%	17%	45
Hispanic	58%	14%	44
Domestic partnership/Living with partner (not legally married)	57%	19%	38
Nonwhite male	57%	19%	38
Muslim	53%	17%	36
Identify as LGBT	54%	18%	36
Asian	51%	18%	33
Jewish	56%	26%	30
Unmarried woman	48%	20%	28
Separated	50%	23%	27
Postgraduate	50%	24%	26
Less than $24,000/year	50%	25%	25
Female, 18-49	44%	20%	24
No religion/Atheist/Agnostic	43%	21%	22
Female	45%	26%	19
Pacific	44%	25%	19
Single/Never been married	41%	24%	17
Not religious	42%	26%	16
Female, 50+	47%	32%	15
Divorced	46%	31%	15
30-49	42%	29%	13
18-29	33%	21%	12
Middle Atlantic	45%	33%	12
Have children under 18	41%	29%	12
New England	43%	32%	11
Catholic	46%	35%	11
Married woman	42%	32%	10
Moderately religious	44%	35%	9
East Central/Great Lakes	40%	31%	9
College graduate	40%	31%	9
White college grad	39%	31%	8
Southwest	40%	32%	8
High school or less	41%	33%	8
Widowed	44%	36%	8
$24,000/year-less than $60,000/year	39%	32%	7
Have children (all ages)	41%	35%	6
50-64	42%	39%	3
Married with children under 18	37%	34%	3
Unmarried man	37%	35%	2
Southeast	39%	37%	2
White female	36%	34%	2
West Central	36%	34%	2
$90,000+/year	38%	36%	2
Male, 18-49	33%	32%	1
65+	42%	42%	0
$60,000/year-less than $90,000/year	36%	36%	0
Married	37%	38%	-1
Highly religious	35%	37%	-2
Protestant/Other Christian	36%	38%	-2
Some college	34%	37%	-3
Rocky Mountain	30%	34%	-4
Male	34%	40%	-6
Non-Hispanic White	30%	41%	-11
Mormon	21%	33%	-12
Married man	32%	45%	-13
Male, 50+	36%	49%	-13
Veteran household	29%	49%	-20
White non-college grad	26%	47%	-21
White male	25%	49%	-24
May 1-24, 2016

One thing immediately clear is the extraordinary role that Americans' race and ethnicity play in determining how they view these two candidates. Six of the nine segments with the largest favorable gap in favor of Clinton include a race/ethnicity component, and the two segments with the largest favorable gap in favor of Trump are defined, in part, by race as well.

Overall, the tendencies in these data are clear. Those most differentially positive toward Clinton (over Trump) are those who identify themselves with any race or ethnic category other than non-Hispanic white, women, those who are not married, LGBT identifiers, any religious group that is not Protestant or Mormon, those who are not religious and those with lower incomes.

Naturally, combinations of these demographic categories produce the most extremely different views. Combining the racial category of being white with the gender category of being male produces the strongest pro-Trump category tested. On the other hand, combining the racial category of being nonwhite with the gender category of being female produces the second-strongest pro-Clinton category tested.

At the risk of overgeneralization, we can say that the typical American who really likes Clinton and doesn't like Trump is a black, Hispanic or Asian female living outside the bounds of a traditional marriage and who is unreligious. The typical American who really likes Trump and doesn't like Clinton is a white male who is traditionally married, religious, and a Protestant or Mormon.

Frank Newport, Ph.D., is Gallup's Editor-in-Chief. He is the author of Polling Matters: Why Leaders Must Listen to the Wisdom of the People and God Is Alive and Well.