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LOUSY IRAN DEAL

IRAN DEAL IS JUST AS BAD AS WE FEARED

The Iran deal is complete ( text here).

As expected, the Comprehensive Joint Plan of Action concedes considerable ground to Iran, including more than $100 billion in sanctions relief, in exchange for a temporary pause in parts of Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Iranian media celebrated the deal, touting the many provisions to Tehran's advantage, such as:

  • Iran is recognized as being entitled to continue nuclear enrichment;
  • no Iranian sites will be closed down - even the illicit facilities at Natanz and Fordow will continue to operate in some capacity;
  • no centrifuges will be destroyed and research on advanced centrifuges will continue;
  • economic and financial sanctions in the fields of banking, oil, gas, petrochemicals, insurance, and transportation will be lifted immediately.

Dov Zakheim notes that many of the provisions agreed to in the deal were considered "deal breakers" by the U.S. government when negotiations began.

Noah Pollak lays out what Iran and the U.S got out of this deal -- and Iran's list is much longer.

Robert Satloff, in a very important piece in the NY Daily News, points out the serious problems with the "snapback" sanctions that President Obama says will keep Iran from cheating on the deal:

What are the consequences for Iranian violations? According to my read of the agreement, there is only one penalty for any infraction, big or small - taking Iran to the UN Security Council for the "snapback" of international sanctions. That is like saying that for any crime - whether a misdeameanor or a felony - the punishment is the death penalty. In the real world, that means there will be no punishments for anything less than a capital crime.

What does "snapback" mean in practice? Let's say that the UN Security Council does order the reimposition of sanctions. According to my read of the agreement, all contracts signed by Iran up until that point are grandfathered in and immune from sanctions. That means one can expect a stampede of state-to-state and private sector contracts - some real, many hypothetical - all designed to shield Iran from the impact of possible reimposition of sanctions, thereby weakening the impact of the punishment.

But the problem with snapback gets worse. The agreement includes a statement that Iran considers a reimposition of sanctions as freeing it from all commitments and restrictions under the deal. In other words, the violation would have to be really big for the Security Council to blow up the agreement and reimpose sanctions. That effectively gives Iran a free pass on all manner of small to mid-level violations.

T om Rogan writes that the deal ignores the nature of the Iranian regime, which is focused on "the physical and ideological expansion of Khomeinism throughout the Middle East."

Gabriel Scheinmann thinks that supporters of the deal will have to take a lot of things on faith.

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