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HOW DID LATINOS FARE THIS PAST PRIMARY?

nilp_national_institute_latino_policy_nyrebog_com_.jpgThe NYC Primaries and the Latino Vote (Updated and Expanded) 

by Angelo Falcon (September 28, 2010)

 

The lead story for the September 14th New York City primaries was the upset of Tea Party-backed Carl P. Paladino over Rick Lazio in the Republican primary for Governor (with Lazio winning on the Conservative line, recently announcing his intention not to run at all ). So we thought we would make sure that the outcomes in the Latino community were not ignored and below we report the final preliminary numbers  of those races where Latinos ran for office. This is followed with an analysis of the Democratic voter turnout rates in these districts.

 

The Defeats of Espada and Monserrate

In the Latino community , the lead story  would have to be the loss by the controversial State Senator Pedro Espada from the Bronx, the poster boy for all that is bad in Albany. He was defeated by newcomer Gustavo Rivera by an impressive 62 to 33 percent margin. Hiram Monserrate, the other controversial figure in Albany politics, was also defeated in his effort to return to elective office in his run for the open Assembly seat in the 39th District in Queens, losing to Francisco Moya by a definitive 67 to 33 percent.

 

The Power of Incumbency

However, the renomination of Democratic incumbents like José Rivera, Naomi Rivera, Marcos Crespo, and Nelson Castro to the Assembly and Ruben Diaz, Sr. and José M.  Serrano, Jr. to the State Senate indicates that the "throw the bums out" reform strategy was not successful . At the same time, although many of these Latino incumbents supported Pedro Espada, his defeat indicates that the once famed "Bronx Boys" political machine is in complete disarray and politically ineffectual. Another indicator of this was the anemic turnouts in many of those districts (see turnout analysis below).

  

The inability of Charlie Ramos to unseat Ruben Diaz, Sr. was another blow to the Albany reform movement and to proponents of the same-sex marriage issue. Regardless of one's views of Rev. Diaz's politics, he is a strong longtime grassroots force in his district, successfully mixing politics and religion. In addition, with his son providing political cover for him in his role as Bronx Borough President, Diaz, Sr. did not experience the same time of opposition within the party that Espada did. These were formidable factors for Ramos' challenge to overcome.

 

Overall, it appears that former Mayor Ed Koch's New York Uprising  campaign for Albany reform fell flat. This campaign had very little Latino participation, except for Puerto Rican political elder Herman Badillo, and had no impact in this community. 

 

In what is now a predominantly Latino Congressional district and in one of the most high profile campaigns, Congressman Charlie Rangel won reelection with a bare majority  of 51 percent. He was followed by Puerto Rican challenger Adam Clayton Powell, who attracted 23 percent of the vote. This district in 2009 was 43 percent Latino, 27 percent Black, 24 percent White and 4 percent Asian. For a profile of this district, click here .

 

The Paladino Factor 

However, for the Republicans, the Paladino upset over Lazio sends an anti-incumbent message to that party, which could weaken it in the November general elections. On the other hand, polls and other development following the primaries have turned Paladino's marginal candidacy into a viable one in what had earlier been seen as a virtual coronation to the governorship by Cuomo, especially with the exit of Lazio. The existence of a competitive race for Governor can benefit the Latino community, mitigating the tendency of the Democratic Party to take its vote for granted.

 

A More Ethnically Diverse

Latino Political Class 

With the victories of Guillermo Linares for the Assembly in Manhattan, and Adriano Espaillat for the State Senate in Manhattan, the Dominican community made important inroads. Espaillat would be the second Dominican to serve in the State Senate, representing Manhattan and The Bronx in this chamber, while with Linares in the Assembly, a veteran and path-breaking Dominican would be entering that body replacing Espaillat (Linares was the first Dominican to win elective office in New York, serving on the City Council). The Espaillat victory also represents the only new addition to Latinos in elected office, replacing Eric Schneiderman, who won the Democratic nomination to run for Attorney General in November. 

 

The victory of Francisco Moya over the controversial Puerto Rican Hiram Monserrate represents the first Ecuadorian to win major elective office in New York. This and the Dominican victories indicate a slow but growing challenge to Puerto Rican "hegemony" of Latino politics in the city. It also addresses the longtime grievance by some in the non-Puerto Rican Latino community of Queens of the need to have Central and South American representation that is more reflective of the major ethnicities of Latinos in that borough (the first Latino elected official in this borough was a Puerto Rican, Hiram Monserrate, to the City Council).

 

Democratic Party Marginalization

of Latino Politics 

It was also interesting to see the relatively large number of Latino challengers (at least 17) that were not elected but challenged both Latino and non-Latino incumbents and ran for open seats. But there remains the continuing problem of the lack of Latino candidates for citywide and statewide office, reflecting a historical failure of the Democratic Party to cultivate Latinos for higher office (or, to put it in other terms, the Democratic Party's great success in politically marginalizing Latinos).

 

Underrepresentation of Latina Women 

It appears that Latina women did not do well in these primaries, although there were a number of Latinas running. Of the 17 Latino challengers running, 4 were women (23.5 percent). This continues the problem of the significant underrepresentation of Latina women in elective office in New York. Besides the renomination of Noami Rivera to the Assembly in the 80th District in the Bronx, the strongest Latina candidate was Julissa Gomez, a Dominican, who lost to Guillermo Linares in the open seat in the 72nd Assembly District in upper Manhattan, attracting 24.1 percent of the vote.

 

Running on Non-Latino Districts 

Latino candidates also ran in districts that were not predominately Latino.  Besides the Rangel race, Latinos also challenged and lost to two African-American incumbents: Anthony Miranda against Jeffrey Aubrey, and Ariel Ferreira against Herman "Denny" Farrell. Rafael Dominguez, along with African-American Herbert Moreira-Brown, unsuccessfully challenged White incumbent Michael Benedetto in the 82nd Assembly District in the Bronx that includes Coop City.

 

Problems with the New Voting System 

Finally, there appeared to be significant problems with the new computer-based voting system, which will have voting rights advocates exploring whether they have disenfranchised Latinos and other minority voters. There were recurring complaints that the new system compromised the secrecy of the ballot process, especially among the poor and minority voters. The poor administration of this new voting system and Mayor Michael Bloomberg's strong public criticism of the NYC Board of Election's performance as "a disgrace," raises the need to reform the election board by taking control of it from the political parties and turning it finally into a nonpartisan civil service-based operation. 

Because the Democratic Party voters dominate so much in New York City, victory in these primaries is tantamount to election in November. However, some of those defeated can still run as independents or as third party candidates.

 

Final Results

New York City Primaries

September 14, 2010

NYC Primaries 2010

 

Low Turnout? 

The preliminary turnout rates in these primaries in Latino races were generally poor. In the Assembly races it was only 9.5 percent, in the State Senate races it was 9.7 percent and in the one Congressional race it was 13.7 percent. Turnout was highest in the 39th Assembly District in Queens where Moya defeated Monserrate for this open seat with a turnout of 15.9 percent. It was lowest in the 76th Assembly District in the Bronx, in which the incumbent Peter Rivera was renominated with a tiny 4.8 percent turnout. In the most high profile race, the 33rd State Senate District where Gustavo Rivera defeated incumbent Pedro Espada, the turnout rate was 10.2 percent. 

 

But compared with Democratic voter turnout number in 2006 in Assembly districts that held primaries in both years, the story on turnout this year was more mixed. Between the 2006 and 2010 primaries, the largest drop in turnout (-32.1 percent) was in the 72nd Assembly District in upper Manhattan, and it also dropped slightly in the 80th AD in the Bronx by -3.3 percent. On the other hand, turnout increased in the 39th AD in Queens by +17.2 percent and slightly in the 68th AD in Manhattan by +1.8 percent.

 

NYC Primaries 2010 Turnout

 

Conclusions 

These primaries maintained the political status quo for the Latino community in general. Except for the defeat of Pedro Espada, the incumbents were for the most part returned to office. This status quo also means that the much-touted reform of Albany politics and the unresponsiveness of the Democratic Party to the needs of the Latino community remain largely unchanged.

 

The victory of Gustavo Rivera and the candidacies of Charlie Ramos, Julissa Gomez and others represent the emergence of a new younger progressive generation of Latino political activists. The election of the first Ecuadoran and the gains made by Dominicans in these primaries will result in a more ethnically diverse Latino political class. It points as well to the continued lack of political representation of other large Latino communities, especially Mexicans and Colombians.

 

The defeat of Pedro Espada and the to many inexplicable unsuccessful opposition of the Bronx Democratic Committee, aka "The Bronx Boys," to some of their own incumbents points to the political deterioration of that so-called "machine." This is a significant development because the Bronx has historically been the political stronghold of Puerto Rican politics in the city. Gains in Latino political representation in Manhattan and the Bronx indicate the potential growth of Latino influence in those boroughs, while recent charges against Brooklyn powerhouse Assemblyman Vito Lopez and other challenges to his political dominance in the borough point to potentially significant changes there, although it is not clear if this is for the better or the worse.

 

In the high profile races to unseat State Senators Pedro Espada and Ruben Diaz, Sr. the role of liberal White organizations came into play supporting Latino reform candidates at an unprecedented level. In the case of Gustavo Rivera, who unseated Espada, it will be interesting to see how this will affect his agenda once seated in the State Senate.

 

The low level of Latino voter participation was also startling. It is, however, understandable, given the bickering between the Latino political leadership and the high degree of political corruption that exists.   

 

Overall, these primaries did little to affect what is generally viewed as a major political leadership crisis affecting the Latino community. The 2.3 million Latinos, making up 28 percent of the city's population, continue to be poorly represented in the political process despite their large numbers. These primaries, in fact, point to a further deterioration in the quality, if not quantity, of this representation. 

 

Angelo Falcon is President and Founder of the National Institute for Latino Policy (NiLP). He can be reached at afalcon@latinopolicy.org .

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